The route to safety - part two
By Stuart Gillespie
Updated Sunday, 2nd May 2010
Yesterday's results means we are all but guaranteed our place in next season's SPL. There's still an outside chance we could be relegated, so let's take a look at just what unfortunate series of events would need to happen to send us down.
Once again, we could stay up on goal difference. However, this is not like last season when we stayed up by just two goals. It would need an unbelievable turnaround for us to be anywhere near danger in the final two games.
If we get a win or a draw in either of our last two games, we are officially safe, regardless of what happens elsewhere. Similarly, if one of Falkirk and Kilmarnock fails to win on Wednesday, it is all over. If we lose our last two games, Falkirk and Kilmarnock win on Wednesday and then draw on Saturday, all three times are level on points. Only then are we in danger of going down.
However, for that to happen would need an unbelievable swing in goal difference. We are on -12, Kilmarnock on -23 and Falkirk on -26. For us to be in trouble, the following needs to happen:
We are still a point ahead, while our goal difference is -17, Kilmarnock and Falkirk move on to -21.
Saints 0-5 Aberdeen
Kilmarnock 1-1 Falkirk
That would leave the teams level, with us on a goal difference of -22 and Kilmarnock and Falkirk on -21 - and relegation.
To further demonstrate the unlikeness of this series of events, bear this in mind:
The most goals we have conceded in a game this season is three. The biggest losing margin we have suffered is two goals.
The most goals Falkirk have scored in a game this season is three. Their biggest winning margin is two goals.
The most goals Kilmarnock have scored in a game this season is four. Their biggest winning margin is three goals.
The most goals Aberdeen have scored in a game this season is four. Their biggest winning margin is three goals.
The most goals Hamilton have scored in a game this season is four. Their biggest winning margin is three goals.
So, for us to go down it would involve Falkirk, Aberdeen and Hamilton scoring more in a game than they've managed all season and us losing by more than we have all season - and in the space of two games!
It's not going to happen. We are safe!