At present, we have 32 points, Kilmarnock have 29 and Falkirk have 28. We have a vastly superior goal difference compared to them - it's 10 better than Killie and 14 better than Falkirk - so it shouldn't be an issue. For the purposes of this article, we'll pretend it doesn't change so drastically over the final three games that it becomes an issue. Things are already complicated enough!
Put simply, Saints will be officially safe if they beat Falkirk on Saturday. However, as this is St. Mirren, it won't be simple. Even if we don't win, we can be safe if we draw and Kilmarnock fail to beat St. Johnstone (I'll explain why in a minute), but they've got a 100 per cent record against the Saintees so that's pretty unlikely too.
Something that greatly helps our survival hopes is Kilmarnock and Falkirk face each other on the last day of the season, meaning it is impossible for both sides to take nine points out of nine. So, if we drew with Falkirk on Saturday and Killie did likewise, the gaps would be the same but there would be two games left. A midweek defeat to Hamilton, combined with Killie winning at Aberdeen and Falkirk winning against St. Johnstone, would see us level with Kilmarnock and a point ahead of Falkirk. Remember, we have a vastly superior goal difference, so even if we lost to Aberdeen on the final day of the season only one of Kilmarnock and Falkirk could get more points than us, meaning we'd survive on goal difference.
It's worth noting that 35 points will be the magic number for SPL survival, as I will explain using two more scenarios. Should we lose our next two games and Falkirk and Kilmarnock win them, they'd be two and three points ahead of us going into the final game of the season. Doom and gloom? Nup, because they play each other. A Saints win over Aberdeen will pop us level with Kilmarnock again. If they lose, Falkirk will be below us on points. If Falkirk win, we'll have a better goal difference than Killie. If it's a draw, we'll be level with Falkirk but will have a better goal difference. This will also be the same if we lose on Saturday and the final game, but record a midweek win over Hamilton. In effect, a win in any of our remaining three games will seal things.
But so will three draws, which will perhaps be more appealing to Gus MacPherson's rather cautious nature. A draw on Saturday, combined with Killie winning, leaves us one ahead of them and four ahead of Falkirk. Another draw at Hamilton, with Falkirk and Killie winning their midweek games, leaves us two ahead of the Bairns and one behind Kilmarnock. A final day draw with Aberdeen puts us level with Killie and three behind Falkirk, creating the possibility of us all being level if Falkirk win - but we have a better goal difference. Worth noting that if we draw our next two games, we can afford to lose the final game of the season as long as Falkirk don't win - but that's getting a bit hairy.
So there you have it. There are plenty of other permutations, of course, but they rely on Falkirk and Kilmarnock dropping points somewhere along the line - or a big swing in the goal difference stakes. The above is based on them winning their next two games (including Falkirk's against us) and is a worst case scenario. For us, it really is simple - win any of the last three and we're safe. If we can't do that, we don't deserve to be in the SPL.