Fight To The Finish
By Stuart Gillespie
Updated Wednesday, 9th May 2007
Events at East End Park on Monday night mean that the relegation battle is very much a three way fight. But who'll lose? Mirren Mad takes a look so that you'll know exactly what not to bet on.Such is the closeness that Saints could be bottom or safe come Saturday night. At the moment, the bottom three of the SPL look like this:
10 Motherwell 36 10 7 19 39 58 -19 37
11 St Mirren 36 7 12 17 28 48 -20 33
12 Dunfermline 36 8 8 20 25 50 -25 32
You can work the figures out for yourselves. Here are the fixtures over the last two weekends of the season:
Saturday May 12
Caley Thistle v Dunfermline
Motherwell v Saints
Saturday May 19
Dundee United v Motherwell
Dunfermline v Falkirk
Saints v Caley Thistle
If Dunfermline win on Saturday then it will be decided on the final day, regardless of events at Fir Park. If Saints and Dunfermline both win this weekend, there will be two points separating three sides!
The smart money at the moment has to be on Motherwell staying up. They may be on an awful run of form, but they have a four point advantage over us, and a five point one over Dunfermline. A draw on Saturday against Saints will be enough, although they are likely to be missing Scott McDonald. The fact we managed a win at Tannadice means Motherwell can surely do the same.
Dunfermline are in cracking form at the moment and won in Inverness a few weeks ago, so there's nothing to stop them doing the same this Saturday. We managed to win at Falkirk a few weeks ago, which suggests Dunfermline can do so at home.
However, there is a lot of rivalry between the fans, and they may enjoy relegating their rivals - meaning the players are more up for it. It will be interesting to see which theory plays out if it goes that far? Will they want to send their rivals down, or do they want some "derby" games?
As for Saints; well, we won last weekend and against Falkirk. However, we haven't won at home for a while and are extremely inconsistent. Perhaps the bookies (never wrong those chaps, apparently) are right to price us as favourites for the drop. The current betting (according to The Sun) is 5/6 for us to go down, even for the Pars and 12/1 for Motherwell - down from 100/1!
So, predictions for the next few weeks? Here's how I think the results will go:
Caley Thistle 0 v 2 Dunfermline
Motherwell 2 v 0 Saints
Dundee United 1 v 1 Motherwell
Dunfermline 1 v 0 Falkirk
Saints 1 v 1 Caley Thistle
That would leave Motherwell third bottom, Dunfermline second and Saints bottom, thus being relegated.
I hope I'm wrong, and those predictions probably will be. However, despite the fact we're one point ahead, I can't see anything other than the dreaded drop.